Writing
Whatever happens to interest me. Published when there is something I actually want to write, not on a schedule.
/11 min read
Why I hold SMDR, from the numbers I could check
An AI research report priced SMDR's fair value using a share count that was off by 109 times. I rebuilt the case from the actual filings, and the reason turned out to be cash, not the fastest growth.
/15 min read
Where the $150 oil number actually comes from
In March 2026 Macquarie put 40 percent odds on oil reaching $200. By June the same bank expected an average of $77. Both numbers came out of the same model, with one assumption changed.
/7 min read
What the digital invitation pricing pages actually say
I opened the pricing pages of six Indonesian digital invitation platforms. The struck-through price never goes away, the invitation itself is free, and what's really being metered is guests, messages and time.
/10 min read
One Panama Canal slot, Rp94 billion
A YouTube title says ships are paying 40 times more to cross. The dollar figure behind it is real, the rupiah conversion is stale, and the comparison is against the wrong thing. What happens when ships take the long way round is the more interesting part.
/5 min read
Reading the digital invitation market from the official numbers
How many people marry in Indonesia, when they marry, and how little is actually known about digital invitation adoption — with every figure marked as data, calculation, or guesswork.
/2 min read
Three plans for after this month
This month is my last at Multi Medika Mahadata. This isn't a post about leaving, though. It's about the three things I'll be working on next.
/1 min read
Hello, let me introduce myself
A short introduction, and what I'll write here: whatever happens to interest me.